Mounts are Locks
April 24 (commentary)--Consider this question: if the Sony A850 had a Nikon F mount instead of an Alpha mount, would you buy it? The answer to that question is almost universally yes amongst the Nikon faithful. An A850 with an F mount would basically mean a simpler D3x at a US$5000 discount. Who wouldn't want that?
But this little example shows you just how much lens mounts are locks to customers. First, the Nikon user generally won't buy an A850 because it either means lens duplication (which probably puts the cost back up to D3x territory), or worse still, a complete abandonment of investment in the Nikon system to make one in the Alpha system. Then what happens when Nikon does something that you want, but Sony doesn't? Do you flip back and forth?
But lens mounts are locks to the competitors trying to dislodge Nikon and Canon, too. Currently, Sony simply doesn't have the total lens kit available to compete with the high-end users that Canon and Nikon do. Yes, I know that we can use older Minolta lenses on the current Sonys, but even with that used lens emporium you're still probably going to find something you want that you can't get. Plus dipping into the used lens market is a risk in and of itself. So Sony's ambitions to dislodge Nikon and Canon in the high-end market are also stymied by the mount.
Now consider the micro 4/3rds cameras. One of the things that is pushing their success amongst current DSLR users is that you can get a mount adapter for virtually any mount. I've got ones for my Leica and Nikon lenses, for instance. The interesting thing is that many people discover that they actually prefer the m4/3 lenses that are available and don't use their adapted lenses as much as they thought they would, but it's the perception that they're not locked in and won't be duplicating lenses that allows them to make the leap.
Okay, so what about Samsung? Well, they don't quite get it, and they're not experiencing the same DSLR user flood looking for a small, compact body that Olympus and Panasonic are. They simply don't see the mount issue that's holding them back. Where Olympus is quietly encouraging mount adapters, Samsung isn't.
So we're back to Sony. In May they launch their mirrorless cameras, which will have a new lens mount. Sony will have an Alpha mount adapter for those cameras, but see above: the Alpha mount adapter isn't exactly going to open up the floodgates. It will encourage Sony Alpha users to buy the Sony mirrorless instead of the Olympus and Panasonic and Samsung offerings, but that's not enough. If I were Sony, I'd be spurring on the makers of Nikon, Leica, Canon, and other adapters too.
Nikon is still basically silent on mirrorless. But I'm betting that they'll not be very interested in the thought of putting anything other than their new lenses on that camera when it appears. Too bad. Proprietary mounts can harm you as much as help you. Being late to the game means you have to have a better story than those that preceded you. The mount is going to be one of the things people look at to see if you've got a better story. By emphasizing only your mount, you keep your faithful from leaving the ship, but you don't necessarily win over new users.
The camera makers are mostly locked into the same game they played with film SLRs, and we know how that turned out: it's a game of keeping losses to a minimum to slow the contraction that happens after market saturation. I know I'm repeating the same thought, but the solution is simple: redefine what a camera is. Right now, Panasonic and Olymus are closer to doing that than Nikon and Canon. But no one has gotten it right yet.